Diminishing Returns

Stone monuments served as the earliest computer guiding the planting of crops in the spring.

Stone monuments served as the earliest computer guiding the planting of crops in the spring.


The planting of crops was of critical importance to early societies. At Stonehenge an early computer was built to determine accurately the correct date to plant the crops. As a tourist you can visit and see for yourself the stones that were erected. Visually sighting the position of the sun at dawn establishes the season. Over many generations this computing instrument evolved into the smaller Astrolab.DIMastrolab Standing on the backs of giants, the concepts of the earth as a spinning sphere orbiting the sun were reflected in matching Astrolab geometry. Today using the accuracy of cesium atomic clocks we can use our computer technology to calculate the arrival of spring to the nearest billionth of a second. Diminishing returns have set in. Choosing the correct time to plant crops is every bit as important to our society as it was to early societies. Using more sophisticated computer techniques to calculated the date to higher accuracies has ceased to add any value to the original task of choosing a planting date.
Maybe the answer is “Big Data” Most farmers use long range weather forecasts to hedge their bets. This is all great until a volcanic eruption like the 1883 eruption of Krakatoa fills the upper atmosphere with reflective dust. No amount of current computer horsepower can factor in climate change, solar light emission variation, soot deposition on snow, or other causes we haven’t fathomed yet.
The pendulum swings. After a long run of disruptive computer based changes to society, more of the disruption will come from other sectors. In true “overnight” fashion advances in battery technology, materials, coatings, biology,medicine will splash onto the scene. Yes, the computer will have some role in these advances but it will not have the primary role. We are seeing the season start to change. Many of the new offerings being showcased at start-up conferences like South by Southwest include hardware becoming more than just software. My own www.mileagetrakker.com is based on a connected car hardware device which overcomes many of the frustrations of using an APP. This is not to say that there isn’t some good APPs among the 12 million or so offerings on Apple and Google. Most creators of APPs fight the “discoverability challenge.” Diminishing returns have set in.

Affordable Mass Customization

The front wheel drive K-body became the parent for many vehicles including the successful Minivan

The front wheel drive K-body became the parent for many vehicles including the successful Minivan


Chrysler almost went bankrupt when the first K-bodies came out. Fighting through dismal sales of historic rear wheel drive models, the K-body tooling bills, launch hick-ups, the finish line finally was in sight. Lee Iacocca was desperate for cash flow. All of the first vehicles in the initial build schedule were fully loaded with all of the options. All of the engineering thrifting needed to sell a vehicle for the $9800 advertised base price had been done right. Engineers become creative when their backs are to the wall. Changing the bumpers to shorten the vehicle by 2 inches so that 7 cars instead of 6 per row would fit onto the captive train cars used for vehicle delivery, saved $100 which was the profit on the base vehicle. Sticker shock killed the initial sales. Curious buyers attracted to the new model hype came into the dealers to see, but turned away when none of the lowest cost vehicles were on display. The funny part of the story is that the buying public did not want to purchase the base model with its manual transmission and vinyl seats. Chrysler did not want to make vehicles with manual transmissions or vinyl seats either because these components actually cost more than the cloth seats and automatic transmissions that actually sold. Actually, what turned out to be important was that the buyers wanted to judge the value of the options for themselves. Welcome to mass customization!
It is easy to determine whether a design is ready for mass customization. A manufacturer of excavators missed the mark by designing a custom frame for their combo dozer option.
Equipment that can fill multiple roles is easier to employ to generate a profit.  An excavator that also functions as a bulldozer saves equipment mobilization.

Equipment that can fill multiple roles is easier to employ to generate a profit. An excavator that also functions as a bulldozer saves equipment mobilization.

It is possible that the mass customization that was accomplished through the use of welded mounting details showed as a cheaper manufacturing option. In reality a customized frame was never available to land a order from a customer who needed a timely delivery (Most customers do) For a little more piece cost, this offering could have been designed so that the option is nothing more than a bolted variation of the parent. I find it very interesting that companies such as Toyoda employ artisan craftsmen mechanics in separate facilities to flavor each vehicle to match the customers order. Yes, a change in thinking and a new manufacturing reality combine to satisfy a market demand for more customization without incurring excessive cost penalties.
Engineering is all about planning and implementing profitable future products. I am currently designing an electric vehicle.
A burden carrier delivers parts at the Ford Rouge Assembly plant.

A burden carrier delivers
parts at the Ford Rouge Assembly plant.

Even though lithium batteries like you find on a Tesla are a lower total cost option, it will be a while before the the buying public is educated enough to invest in the higher up front cost. This is where mass customization is all about planning for options. A good measure for my design success will be whether it is possible to offer all vehicle options from a common design frame. At the same time, it will be necessary to avoid penalizing the base model pricing when adding the design provisions needed to offer the full range of options.