Smile You’re on Camera

Posted on May 15, 2016 by george

Smile for the camera

It used to be that average people were photographed for special occasions like weddings. Elaborate staging and costuming accompanied the event. This was related to the high relative cost of film and processing. We gathered the precious photos in scrapbooks which were kept in our libraries.
This all changed with the advent of digital photography. In the beginning it was not much different. The floppy disc storage media could only hold a dozen or so pictures. Not much different than a film camera expect that the result was fuzzy. However, Moore’s law marches on and we all have thousands of pictures stored in personal digital media. Most everyone has a smart phone that takes selfies.
1984 has arrived. Big Brother is watching. Smile.

Security cameras are a feature of most buildings an parking lots

Actually it did not turn out to be the government that was watching. Most of us want the security that come from monitoring. A friend of ours recovered her stolen purse using the security camera footage of the thief in the process of using her stolen credit card. This was within a hour of the theft. Most of us no longer notice the cameras.
I have also heard funny stories about attempts to hide activity by placing cups over the visible camera enclosures. Security camera technology has advanced rapidly. The large enclosures that you see are no longer needed. A plant that I know of was plagued by early shutdowns by a saboteur who liked to quit early on Fridays. Covering the big security cameras enclosures with coffee cups did not block the view of the actual cameras that were hidden up in the rafters. The dismissed temporary employee quit objecting when he was shown the pictures of him literally throwing a monkey wrench into the works.
It is easy to focus on the occasional negative example. On the positive front, a Go Pro video camera has evolved into a powerful training tool. In this era of rapid change we are constantly in a learning mode. Watching a Go Pro video made by the first person to become proficient at a task, speeds the transfer of the knowledge to the rest of the team. This is particularly effective because watching others perform a task is one of the most effective training methods. The ability to use the same video to establish industrial engineering standards without the invasive timing stopwatch is a secondary benefit.
Everyone is now able to be the photographer. The camera in our cell phone create better pictures than the Instamatic cameras of old. We are just beginning to create the apps that will unlock the usefulness of the camera in the smart phone.

Most smart phones have sophisticated cameras

24 Hour Cities

Posted on May 2, 2016 by george

24 hour cites like New York never sleep

It was not too many years ago that pretty much only the North American auto plants and a skeleton crew at the hospital worked the graveyard shift. As an engineer in a three shift auto plant you would expect to end working the graveyard shift on a regular basis. You do not expect to run into rush hour traffic on your way into work at that time. The first time I ran into Toronto traffic on the way to work on the graveyard shift, I dismissed it as an accident. When you consistently run into rush hour traffic after midnight you realize that the city has become a 24 hour city.
In the current economy the largest cites are where the new employment is being generated. Cities like New York, Hong Kong, Beijing, New Delhi, Jakarta, Tokyo are all 24 hour cities. As the worker becomes a smaller part of the business cost, the shift premium that you need to pay to get workers on shifts other than day shift is insignificant compared to the increased utilization of the capital invested in automation. Even in engineering the advent of high annual cost CAD seats has converted a day shift occupation into a multi-shift occupation.
This is not a new phenomenon. New York City, when it was the transit point for immigrants arriving in America, became a 24 hour city. It was not uncommon in the tenements for night shift workers to share a bed with day shift workers.

24 hour cities have a very high population density. This NYC tenement picture is from the 1800’s

Severe shortages of housing units in Asian cities like Beijing, have generated an echo of the tenements that we saw in New York City. I hope that our race to bottom wage levels does not bring that type of thing back here. It always comes back with a twist. I was reading about a successful entrepreneur who was renting camper vans to Silicon Valley residents who ended up living in their employers parking lots.
Explosive growth comes with its own problems. Ever increasing numbers of goods must be transported into 24 hour cities. The traffic snarl causes trucks to be outlawed during daylight hours. Everyone who is a truck driver is pushed onto the grave
yard shift. Even this drastic step may not be enough. We hear stories of week long traffic jams on the routes into Beijing. Yes increasing the number of TEU (transport equivalent units) that a container ship may carry to over 10,000, is necessary to deliver enough goods to support a city like New York. I can imagine 10,000 trucks backed up all the way to Pennsylvania the day that one of the cranes in the Port of New York craps out.

The capacity of a road drops quickly during a traffic jam

Local

Posted on April 24, 2016 by george

We all like the taste of locally grown produce

A con artist was telling the story about a Texas millionaire that he called from a boiler room from which he operated. The millionaire liked the sound of the investment opportunity but declined to participate. When the con artist pressed him for a reason he replied “Well son, I make it a rule not to do business with people that I am not seeing face to face” A further question got the reply “I cannot wring the neck of people that are out of reach when the investment deal goes sour” Local is coming back into fashion. We are becoming tired of deals that have gone sour that benefit people who are beyond our reach. Many companies thought they could obtain a better price by sourcing off shore. There are lots of want ads for quality professionals as a result these days. Unfortunately, quality cannot be inspected into a product after the fact. The people who deliberately omitted the gum strip in the tires that they made, knew that their loved ones were not in any danger.

Serious levels of technology are needed to create reliable tires

The tires were being shipped to the other side of the world. The danger was not visually apparent to the army of receiving inspectors. After the incident only the US distributors who were unaware of the deception got punished. Anyone who has experienced controlling a car after a tire blows out, will shy away from buying that same tire again. No, the answer is not in hiring more inspectors. In an interconnected society each participant is accountable. This is much more effective if they are local. We are seeing the pendulum swing back. The reshoring and locally grown produce movement are just examples of the consumer backlash.
This type of deception is not limited to manufactured products. Food products like milk are easy to adulterate. “Flavoring” agents like melamine can hide the fact that the milk has been diluted. We use melamine to make useful products such as marine plywood. Including these “flavoring” agents in products such as baby formula and dog food might be a match to Asian thinking. Local food suppliers are not likely include controversial ingredients in the foods that their own kids and pets might eat.
Transporting goods around the world is incredibly expensive. The US taxpayer foots a multi trillion dollar bill to support the naval presence needed to protect the container transport ships from pirates. This system was set up to subsidize the creation of unemployment in the US. I suspect that some recent innovations such as the creation of gasoline from natural gas, hydroponics, US cultivation of agricultural product like tea will make it possible for the US to adopt locally made on a much grander scale. It is interesting that peppers locally grown year round in hydroponic green houses are cheaper than those imported from offshore third world countries. I also suspect that they contain more of the nutrients when they are consumed by the purchaser.

Hydroponics make it possible to buy just picked peppers year round

The lean movement will flush out the senseless inefficiencies like trying to inspect in quality. I happen to be in favor of re-educating convicts to become contributing members of society. At the same time I also believe that the local users are in a better position to insure that they are assigned production tasks that match their trustworthiness. A low selling price for goods made at a distance could be just a disguise for dumping of substandard convict manufactured goods on unsuspecting buyers.
A new stability is emerging. In the post industrial age we will employ global know how on a local stage. Knowing the other players in your circle will increase the satisfaction that has been lost in a currently faceless society.

Just Logical

Posted on April 6, 2016 by george

Binary digital numbers easily represent yes and no choices

Most people understand how to use the binary system to make logical choices. —— 1=YES 0=NO —— Pretty Simple —– It starts that way. Ah, that life could be broken down into a simple YES/NO choice. Add in semiconductors with large scale integration and a few megaflops later we are drowning is a sea of data. Is our life any better? Even though the amount of data at our finger tips has propagated into the terrabyte range, many of the decisions we make are still yes or no. Arehere any bits buried within the myriad of big data that can improve our life? The data contained within the big data set is the beginning of the answer.
As humans we are born with unlimited wants. Unfortunately we were not also born with a list of what those personal wants are. This is where big data fits in.

Only the big data that is related to us sparks our interest

I suspect that Google with its invasive collection of my search behavior, might have a better idea of my wants than I do. I find it fascinating to watch which ads that it sends my way. Its memory is a lot better as well. Many times I forget what I was doing yesterday. Google is still presenting ads related to equipment I was buying last year. Surprising targeting ads is a win-win. Both the presenter and viewer benefit by having a better match. If it takes big data to get the job done well so be it.
The adoption of more big data processing is all about benefit. For example your car produces about a terrabyte of data in its lifetime. This data is already used by the computers on board to adapt to the fuel composition and the weather so that the vehicle runs smoothly with low emissions. This use of the data by the car does not prevent other uses. In my connected car offering – www.mileagetrakker.com – our users typically gain a US$ 9700.00 tax deduction simply because they have a IRS format record of the mileage that their vehicle traveled.

Capture your full mileage deduction

Yes. the IRS will accept a paper log. Most people find that it is a whole easier to let the processing of big data from the cars computers to do it for them.

Chasing Unicorns

Posted on March 28, 2016 by george

Unicorns take on a mythical aura because most people have not seen one

“We are looking for the best and brightest talent to join our unicorn hunt. Our compensation package is north of 6 figures and we offer the standard start-up percs of free pizza, gym, air hockeym ping pong etc.” Other offers to the starting engineer read “A career with our firm as a manufacturing engineer starts with an unpaid internship. Those people who progress (read survive) to the point where they have senior talent can look forward to a $50,000 salary with unlimited overtime.” Mind you, unicorn hunting is not easy. It requires that you are flawless in writing the latest code. can pivot on a dime when you hit a dead end, and can spot a path where others cannot see one. Surprisingly a tiny number of engineers pick option B. I suspect they are the ones who do not understand financial profit. The legacy companies continue to follow their stodgy path because they choose not to acquire the top flight talent needed to grow. The employees in those firms become mired in a system of layoffs, pay cuts, cost cutting, reorganization etc.
Gold rushes are not a new phenomenon. The first prospectors who worked the California gold fields in 1849 could earn 10 to 15 times what east coast wage earners made at the time. This level of financial incentive motivates many people.

panning for gold is profitable for the first people who work the claims

Unicorn hunters are in the same category. The success of the original “Facebook” entrepreneurs launched many copycats. Just as the late arrivals to the California gold fields discovered, the big financial success is enjoyed by the pioneers. Currently there are about eight million apps offered for sale. Fewer than three percent of those apps had enough sales to recover the $100,000 investment needed to create the app. This herd mentality sets the stage for the next gold rush. The big salaries funded by venture capitalist have siphoned away the engineering talent that normal companies need to survive. A persistent talent vacuum sets the stage for a big disruption in unexpected sectors.
Napoleon Hill in his book “Acres of Diamonds” did a great job of explaining how this happens. In his book a farmer sells his land to search the world for diamonds. He returns 20 years later to discover that his land is now a diamond mine. Similar stories will be told about today’s unicorn hunters. After a string of unicorn hunts in regions where all of the unicorns have been harvested, searchers will return to discover that the best opportunities are in places that have not been trampled by the herd.

Turning Circle

Posted on March 20, 2016 by george

You are beginning to see more roundabouts in US roads

I discovered the difference between turning circle and turning radius on my first trip to Ireland. The landscape of Ireland is largely made up of exposed bedrock. The roads snake across the ground in continuous curves because blasting is very expensive. When you travel around what they call an acute bend your mirrors stick out. Even though I was driving a rental car with a short wheelbase that had a tight turning radius, it was the turning circle that really mattered. I discovered that European cars have collapsing side mirrors. You can guess how I discovered that fact. Passing a car going the opposite direction tests whether the entire vehicle is out of the way. The saving grace of being a Irish tourist was that I did not have to drive a bus. The long wheel base of a vehicle like a bus makes both the turning radius and turning circle much larger.
Designing a vehicle for use in a warehouse brought back the memories of driving in Ireland. The aisles are narrow and the corners at the end of the racks are sharp. The theoretical radius path of the vehicle on the floor makes little difference if the corners of the vehicle stick out enough to knock the shelves over.

Most warehouses have narrow aisles and shelving that is tightly packed into the space.

Yes, longer wheelbase vehicles are harder to drive in a confined space. However we all know that more goods can be carried on a larger vehicle. Attention to detail is what makes the difference. Chamfering the corners of a longer wheelbase vehicle can result in the same turning circle that a shorter wheelbase vehicle can achieve. In today’s lean economy, we are all looking for the extra percentage improvements that
come from paying attention to detail.
Engineers think about the difference between a turning radius and a turning circle. The actual industrial vehicle users are only concerned about their ability to drive through a tightly packed warehouse without hitting the shelving or damaging the goods that they are carrying. At the end of the day lean is all about safely moving more goods each trip.

Numeric Build

Posted on March 4, 2016 by george

Noah’s Arc recreation in Holland – picture by Ceinturion

“This is how you are to make it; the length of the ark three hundred cubits. its breadth fifty cubits, and its height thirty cubits.” – the Holy Bible. From the beginning of recorded history man has been employing the benefits of building guided by numeric specifications. In the case of Noah, the proportions for his ark made it seaworthy. We still use the same proportions afforded by these numeric instructions today when we design and create the ships that sail the high seas. Numbers have guided the builders of virtually everything for all recorded history. Until the advent of Computer Numeric Control, the craftsmen read and interpreted the recorded numbers and created the desired item. In Noah’s case, with God arranging the details, it is very possible that 3 numbers were all that was needed to get the job done. At least that was all that Noah needed.
Modern manufacturing is the convergence of a whole lot of processes that have been converted to numbers. At the beginning of the process is the quote. As we migrate to mass customization, every customer wants a price assembled just for him. Money is usually expressed in numbers. Calculating a custom sales price for every order has only become possible with the implementation of ever more computer horsepower. The airline model of charging an unique price for every ticket sold is spreading. Get used to it.

We hardly even think of adding numbers by hand

A lead time is a number. In pretty much all cases this number is greater than zero. I am sure that the people who needed an ark when the rain started to fall, discovered that the lead time number was a lot greater than zero. In this digital age, we place an order and expect it to be shippped in the next day or two. It is a good thing that other people start the manufacturing ball rolling a whole lot earlier.

GPS numeric coordinates track every item as they are transported to fulfill your order

Modern transportation management systems use numeric GPS coordinates to track every item real time. This coordination is needed for all the items to arrive together. It is more complicated than simply ordering everything you need to build at once. It is necessary to take into account the lead time of each item including transportation time. The longest lead time items need to be ordered first.
No, not even the latest computer implemented numeric build methods can deliver you an ark in a couple of days. However under the new Pack Mule Prime program the sum of the latest numeric build systems enable you to configure an electric vehicle to your needs and have it shipped out in a couple of days. Just keep watching for the rainbow, you might not ever need an ark.

There just might be gold at the end of the rainbow

Voting with your Feet

Posted on February 28, 2016 by george

It is virtually impossible to stop a stampede once it gets going

I started my career like today’s millennials. Diligent searching located a good manager to work for. I had heeded the advice, that the supervisor you are working for is more important than the position. What I had not realized is that the management at the top understood how the system worked, having been at the game longer. It was not long before I was shuffled to a under-performing department with a different class of manager. You do not get a vote in the matter. I quickly learned that complaining or even carefully planned demonstrations did not create results fast enough. I had one manager who was stealing. He left in disgrace two years after I parted company. It was already too late the company demise was well underway. You learn to vote with your feet. It is possible that the millennials learned this at a younger age.
The season changes. We have just gone through a long period where job mobility was stymied due to other factors such as an inability to sell a house and move. The stampede is coming. Looking at the bureau of labor statistic numbers we see a trend emerging. The voluntary US job quit rate has returned to a record level. It is very possible that many people have been waiting to vote with their feet. This will be a bitter pill for many managers who choose to abuse their direct reports. The good news is that a focus on retention will result in a more stable employment for many workers. We are entering season where it is more difficult to fill positions and this impacts the bottom line. This will also make people with the skills needed to fill empty slots using automation especially valuable.

Gravity

Posted on February 21, 2016 by george

Tesla Gigafactory by Steve Junvetson contrasted against the original Ford Highland Park Assembly plant by Andrew Jameson

Tesla Gigafactory by Steve Junvetson contrasted against the orginal Ford Highland Park Assembly plant by Andrew Jameson

Lean is a continuously evolving target driven by the underlying business cost factors. As observers, we see the evolving result. The original Ford assembly plant was a 6 story building. I suspect this was optimum at the time because other business cost issues, like heating and central utilities, overrode the difficultly of lifting materials to the upper floor against the force of gravity. In a 6 story plant the elevators were always the bottleneck. They had to work against the force of gravity. Given this history, it is not surprising that we have evolved to a plant layout, like the Tesla Gigafactory, where everything is at the same elevation.
In the 70’s the auto industry annually made 2 million identical Chevrolet Caprices. This necessitated the movement of a whole lot of material. Engineers can rise to the task. Modern marvels of mechanical movement were invented to continuously shuffle identical loads. Comics such as Rube Goldberg poked fun at the result.

Tuggers pulling goods on trailers are displacing transport using lift truck and conveyor systems (by Mdomseif) which look a tiny bit Rube Goldberg (by Phil Mankar) to the current eye

Less than efficient results occur when the engineering task is to stuff more equipment into a limited space. The saving grace in the 70’s was the stability of the market demand. It was stable enough to recover investments in highly dedicated material moving equipment. Energy was cheap, so no one was concerned about the energy wasted fighting gravity using lift trucks and automated retrieval systems. Many of today’s companies have found it more cost efficient to transport goods without changing their elevation. Today we see tuggers and burden carriers, which do not fight gravity by raising and lowering loads, capturing market share by displacing lift trucks. The general public is more concerned about wasting energy and generating extra greenhouse gasses. The cost drivers are always evolving. We may switch back to lift trucks in the future if we can achieve better than a 25% regeneration of lifting energy. Recovery of lifting energy only occurs in a tiny portion of the transport equipment currently in use. Gravity is always weighing us down.
Equipment also benefits when gravity is considered in the design. In my work history I was involved with creating the concept for a machine for ultrasonically testing jet engine blades for cracks. This testing occurs every 1000 hours of jet engine operation.

New Automation Ultrasonic
jet engine blade inspection
machine

Using the same ultrasound used for pregnancy imaging, a probe is CNC transported around the blades in a tank of water. The original testing machines were behemoths. Most of all they were excessively tall. This resulted in the actual blades being tested above the vision level of the operator. New Automation took over the business by implementing my equipment concepts which absolutely minimized the amount of vertical motion that occurred.

Gravity is a relentless adversary. The best manufacturing processes occur when we can minimize the fight with gravity. Horizontal motion is more efficient than vertical motion.

Computer Aided Manufacturing

Posted on February 3, 2016 by george

Methodshop.com iOS 6 turned the iPad into a paperweight

Computer Aided Manufacturing (CAM) has been around for a long time. The name was carefully chosen to encompass all levels of computer involvement. Here we are, many years after the moon landing. Handheld computing devices have more computational power than the computers that guided us to the moon. They also can aid the manufacturing process. The sad part is that the task of serving as a paperweight could be classified as computer aided manufacturing. I suspect that we would use even more computers in the manufacturing process if we hadn’t progressed to the point where they are obsolete before they go on sale.

The Lean Innovator

Lean Engineering Solutions to Improve Profitability in the Areas of Manufacturing, Material Handling and 3D

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