Affordable Mass Customization

Posted on December 25, 2015 by george

The front wheel drive K-body became the parent for many vehicles including the successful Minivan

Chrysler almost went bankrupt when the first K-bodies came out. Fighting through dismal sales of historic rear wheel drive models, the K-body tooling bills, launch hick-ups, the finish line finally was in sight. Lee Iacocca was desperate for cash flow. All of the first vehicles in the initial build schedule were fully loaded with all of the options. All of the engineering thrifting needed to sell a vehicle for the $9800 advertised base price had been done right. Engineers become creative when their backs are to the wall. Changing the bumpers to shorten the vehicle by 2 inches so that 7 cars instead of 6 per row would fit onto the captive train cars used for vehicle delivery, saved $100 which was the profit on the base vehicle. Sticker shock killed the initial sales. Curious buyers attracted to the new model hype came into the dealers to see, but turned away when none of the lowest cost vehicles were on display. The funny part of the story is that the buying public did not want to purchase the base model with its manual transmission and vinyl seats. Chrysler did not want to make vehicles with manual transmissions or vinyl seats either because these components actually cost more than the cloth seats and automatic transmissions that actually sold. Actually, what turned out to be important was that the buyers wanted to judge the value of the options for themselves. Welcome to mass customization!
It is easy to determine whether a design is ready for mass customization. A manufacturer of excavators missed the mark by designing a custom frame for their combo dozer option.

Equipment that can fill multiple roles is easier to employ to generate a profit. An excavator that also functions as a bulldozer saves equipment mobilization.

It is possible that the mass customization that was accomplished through the use of welded mounting details showed as a cheaper manufacturing option. In reality a customized frame was never available to land a order from a customer who needed a timely delivery (Most customers do) For a little more piece cost, this offering could have been designed so that the option is nothing more than a bolted variation of the parent. I find it very interesting that companies such as Toyoda employ artisan craftsmen mechanics in separate facilities to flavor each vehicle to match the customers order. Yes, a change in thinking and a new manufacturing reality combine to satisfy a market demand for more customization without incurring excessive cost penalties.
Engineering is all about planning and implementing profitable future products. I am currently designing an electric vehicle.

A burden carrier delivers
parts at the Ford Rouge Assembly plant.

Even though lithium batteries like you find on a Tesla are a lower total cost option, it will be a while before the the buying public is educated enough to invest in the higher up front cost. This is where mass customization is all about planning for options. A good measure for my design success will be whether it is possible to offer all vehicle options from a common design frame. At the same time, it will be necessary to avoid penalizing the base model pricing when adding the design provisions needed to offer the full range of options.

The Swing

Posted on November 22, 2015 by george

Classic example of KISS

Change

Posted on November 15, 2015 by george

Historic 2 man saws no longer match the OSB wood we build with today

My grandfather was a carpenter. In the Finnish community, this was a common profession. Finland is a land of many trees. Many of the immigrants arrived with the practiced skills and tools for working in wood. As a tiny boy, I was fascinated by the two man saws, augers, planes, chisels, files that were used in the craft. I inherited the Audels manuals that taught the methods for building a structure without using any nails. Sharpening was a key skill. Many hours are needed to file and set each tooth on a saw so that it cuts straight and true. This insight transferred into my occupation in custom metal cutting cutter design. The tools themselves are no longer relevant. A two man saw used to cut planks from timbers is not appropriate for cutting 4×8 (In true change fashion now a slightly different metric size) sheets of OSB (Oriented Strand Board). In a earlier age, ancient northern trees were cut down. The trunks were cut into timbers and floated back to civilization. The rest of the tree was left to decompose. As human population grows, it has become necessary to utilize more of the raw materials. Pretty much all of the wood of a tree can be shaved into the flakes that create OSB board. The sharpening skills of craftsmen have been replaced by mass produced cutting edges made from high technology materials.

All gas stations used to be full serve

My first job was pumping gas. This was consistent with my auto mechanic training and automotive design career goals. Not too bad in the summer. Out in open when the weather was bad. Checking fluids was necessity for most patrons. More reliable cars and self serve made all of that go away. A roof over the pumps made the task palatable for the general public. One of the interesting features of change is that old methods come back with a twist. As we adopt driver-less trucks, the gas pump jockey will reappear. Instead of fill the Truck with diesel, the fuel will be liquefied natural gas. Methane has 4 hydrogen atoms instead of 2 per carbon atom in diesel fuel. We need to make a dent in carbon and black soot emissions.
There won’t be quite as many trucks on the road though. Trains are more fuel efficient at moving goods. I suspect that the gentler grades are a big factor. The autonomous technology that guides AGV (Automatic Guided Vehicles) around warehouses will dispatch a myriad of driver-less train cars to the individual train sidings that lie unused around the country. Again this will come back with a twist. The size of the train car will be adjusted to match the sea land container that now dominates the transport of goods. The receiving plants will invest in the track fans needed to directly unload the cargo in the same fashion that multiple truck docks are currently implemented. As is true in most transitions, we will see loading docks with train rails that can also serve as truck docks.

Loading docks can serve either trucks or properly configured autonomous rail cars

In much the same fashion that the ocean shipping converted from bulk cargo to containers, this change will migrate into the rail industry. As always change happens with a twist.

Approximation

Posted on November 8, 2015 by george

The earth is a water world when seen from space

In the classic tale, 3 blind men encounter an elephant. Each of them gives a different report based on their encounter. A space traveler flying by earth would see a water world covered in oceans. While this is the most accurate approximation, it would totally miss the land masses that are home to the earth’s population. Just like the blind man in the tale, some people who live in the great deserts of the world lack the personal experience to confirm the wet nature of our world.
Quoting is an exercise that is based on approximations. Most customers are unwilling to wait for the time that it takes to assemble a fully detailed list of the costs required to supply a product or service. The pendulum would need to swing really far back for customers to pay for estimates. I have not seen engineers paid for creating cost estimates since my dad worked for an engineering consulting firm. Successful lean firms usually receive quote requests to supply most of the product sold in their industry. This is especially true if they have evolved to the point where they are normally one of the lowest cost bidders. Purchasing agents are evaluated based on their ability to secure the best price. One of their tools is removing suppliers who refuse to quote every job from their bid list. José Ignacio (“Inaki”) López de Arriortúa invented a cost cutting tactic which appeared to work, because if you ask enough suppliers to quote, someone would bid less that it costs. Disgrace finally caught up with him when he was forced to resign from VW. Volkswagen agreed to pay GM $100 million and to buy $1 billion dollars worth of parts from GM to settle Lopez’s misconduct. The poor Tier 1 estimators who were bombarded with an excessive Lopez-inspired barrage of quote requests, gained the ability to estimate quickly and triage. Spreadsheets with tuned approximations were invented.

Spreadsheet use approximations to
collect total cost

In triage fashion two-thirds of the quotes were returned with a quickly calculated price that was 35% over market. I can only imagine the effect of approximate high bid pricing on the cost planners at automotive headquarters. Usually you should make an assessment of the capability of the lowest bidders before you spend 2 billion dollars supplying them with custom tooling. The fact that this tooling never made a part for GM is also part of Lopez’s legacy. At this juncture the effect of this unnecessary cash flow on the GM bankruptcy is simply arm chair quarterbacking. I remember Neil Armstrong (a professor at the University of Cincinnati where I went to school) talking about the danger of space travel. “As an astronaut, you remember that the rocket is made by the lowest bidder.”

The IRS uses our tendency to save time by using approximations to their advantage. Yes, it is possible to compute your mileage deduction using the distances computed by MapQuest. I know this because I have spent many a Christmas holiday recreating the log of mileage needed to qualify for the deduction. Now that my http://mileagetrakker.com device generates an accurate log for me, I discovered that the approximate method left a bunch of money sitting on the table. Actual trips include gas stops, detours, errands, procurement stops, sales calls that usually get left off the recreated list. Having lived both methods, I understand how it happens. Most of my trips occur when my business is busy. It is unusual to have an extra second or two to record mileage when you are running behind.

Visual Management

Posted on October 25, 2015 by george

Our eyes are heavily linked to the thought
processes of our brains

Seeing is believing. We rely heavily on sight to guide our actions. Accordingly, seeing something for ourselves is a powerful way of having us believe it. When we plan systems to control manufacturing activity, the ones that use things that we can see to guide our decisions work the best. This week I was attempting to solve an accuracy deficiency on a high RPM vertical CNC machining center. This machine is used to cut graphite to make EDM electrodes for mold making. The CAD/CAM cutter path software guided shapes, cut using diamond tipped tools, need to be accurate to better than 0.001 inch (0.04mm) on all surfaces. This shape accuracy is needed to obtain the taper needed to eject parts from the mold. 0.001 inch is a tiny distance that is difficult to see and measure. A experimental method that I call a 6 time repeat study is very effective adding visibility to the task. In this case, we machined a test shape using the CNC. After the graphite was cut we used a yellow paint marker to color all surfaces that were machined. The exact same cutting program was run again. Low and behold, one face showed uncut and completely yellow.

A painted test block shows the backlash in the X CNC axis

My machinist could not understand why I called the test a 6 time repeat study. We had only run the program twice. I indicated that once the machine flunks it is no longer necessary to run the remaining passes. Had the part been black on all sides after the first rerun we would have run the program five more times painting in between every cut to confirm that the machine consistently cuts accurately. I had originally thought that my problem was a worn spindle bearing due to the 15000 RPM cut. The actual test part only has a hint of the zebra stripe that a worn spindle bearing creates. The 6 time repeat test for metal cutting CNC machines is similar. I machine a precision bore as the test. A black Sharpy is used for coloring the bored hole between each repeat.

Segeo Shingo correctly taught that every manufacturing operation needs to leave a visual indication that it has been begun. He was careful to distinguish visually confirming that an operation has been begun from inspecting that it has been properly performed. His experience matches mine. For every part that is made with an operation that has been improperly performed, 9 parts are made with that same operation missed. A good example is a rough boring operation. After the part is finished machined there is no way to visually tell that the roughing bore (or drill) actually happened. A missed rough bore is a problem because the only way to achieve the desired roundness in a precision bore is to set the rough cut size so that it only leaves 0.010 inch (.4 mm) stock for the final cut. I am happy to report that the advent of CNC machining centers gives us a few more options. One of my favorite tools is to use a helix orbit to add a counter bore. I make this cut using the roughing cutter after it finishes its bore so that I can either gage or visually confirm that the cutter has not chipped. (In the pictured example, the helixed counterbore using the robust roughing cutters also protected the fragile finishing cutter from the weld located at the start of the bore.)

Adding a CNC helixed counter bore made by the roughing tool makes visually confirmation possible

Adding a CNC helixed counter bore made by the roughing tool makes visual confirmation possible

A classic example of a manufacturing operation that leaves no visual witness is bolt torquing. This becomes a problem when multiple bolts are needed to secure the joint. On a excavator, the turret is secured with 24 to 36 bolts depending on size. If one of these bolts is not tight, the operation of the unit will work it loose and zipper apart the entire joint. The repair, in one years time, is a $20,000 warranty cost. Confirmation of proper bolt torquing is further complicated by the locktite used to seal rust out of the thread. Checking bolt torque a day later only confirms that the locktite is working. This is where Shingo’s visual management concept fits in. Every operation needs to leave a visual witness that it has occurred. This warranty cost was eliminated by redesigning the bolt tightening wrench so that it left a mark when it was used to tighten a bolt. It became possible to visually see walking by that every bolt was tightened.

Final torque wrenches should leave a visual mark when they are used

Not every application can tolerate a scratch in the paint. I have also modified open end wrenches and sockets so that they leave an imprint on the bolt head or nut when the torquing operation is performed.

Batch Process

Posted on October 14, 2015 by george

A batch of fresh baked cookies brings out the kid in me

I was thinking about how to determine the ideal batch size. Cookies came to mind. The ideal batch size is one when you are eating them. As a lover of cookies, I have tried stuffing a bunch of them in my mouth. It doesn’t work as well as eating them one at a time. Further upstream in the manufacturing process, one no longer is the optimum batch size. In my college days the optimum batch size was six. That was the size of my toaster oven tray. Even though the efficiency gurus suggest that we should eliminate all inventory and make cookies one at a time, that is a good theory that does not work in practice. There is something about the smell of baking cookies that attracts and makes friends. Especially on a Sunday night in a guys dorm when there is no food service. Obviously it was necessary to do an ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) raw material order earlier in the week to pick up a roll of cookie dough from the grocery story when the grocery store was open. Only one because that is all that would fit in the dorm micro fridge that I shared with my roommate. Again the batch size was no longer one and increased to a dozen. Going further upstream the cookie dough rolls arrived at the grocery store in case boxes. These were stocked on the shelf from the distribution center arriving in mixed skids. The food batching plant obviously wanted to send full refrigerated trailer loads to the distribution center but for the slower moving products like cookie dough this shipment usually includes a mix of all pre-made refrigerated dough products to reduce scrapping of stale product. Any batch size is theoretically possible. In reality when we chose a width and load limit for the roads, factors like the size of trailers start to govern the equation. Even further upstream in the supply chain, the concept of “pull” scheduling totally falls apart when we get back to the planting of the wheat to make the flour. Planting wheat in one cookie batches makes no sense at all.

Drones will emerge as a means for avoiding traffic jams as the population concentrates into big cites

It will be interesting to see how new delivery methods such as drones affect batch sizes. In this emerging mass customization era, batch size planning also applies to building heavy equipment like excavators. In this market every purchaser wants a machine that is customized for their use. Theoretically the batch size of a sold excavator is one but in the actual market the end users like to buy units is groups of three or five so that they have some opportunity to reduce the number of spare parts that they need to stock. Many of the large components like diesel engines, hydraulic pumps, cylinders are ordered in one year batches of 1000. This is inconsistent with the customers who would like their machines a week or two after they place an order. The solution is to complete the manufacturing until the point that the parts begin to acquire customer unique features. The historical customer behavior influences the upstream batch size planning. Many of the components arrive in “kits.” Building heavy equipment is the sum of organizing and collecting heavy components onto skids that fit into trailers or sea land containers. In the past we saw more 1 TEU containers in ocean shipping. In the US most sea land containers in use are 2 TEU because they are similar in capacity to truck trailers. Lift trucks and pallets sizes also evolve toward the same dimension constraints. In most cases the workers require lifting assists at every step

Gathering heavy items takes a lifting device

I also market a connected car device http://www.mileagetrakker.com that helps people who drive for business save about $1000 to $2000 per year on their tax bill. We give the user the option of recording trip purpose in batch sizes of one using their cell phone or in weekly bunches using the internet. One size does not fit all. Users choose a batch size which fits their work pattern. People that have an unpredictable travel pattern like recording in smaller batches. People with a more stable work pattern tend to like recording trip purpose in weekly batches using the internet because is saves time.

Inversion

Posted on October 7, 2015 by george

Classic illusion flips from faces to vase by Brocken Inaglory

As we focus in on our immediate objectives, the lesson we learn from classic illusions is that occasionally we need to step back and see the bigger picture. The most famous example of a figure–ground illusion is probably the faces–vase drawing that Danish psychologist Edgar Rubin described. Your mind can’t decide whether to focus on the white vase or the black faces.
Shigeo Shingo invented the concept of SMED (Single Minute Exchange of Die) He correctly asserted that if a die change occurred fast enough, the manufacturing planners would not be tempted to build extra production to put into inventory to save die changes. People who only saw the black faces simply tried to increase the die change speed. Shingo correctly guided his followers to focus on the white vase. In most cases much of the die change can be done while the equipment is in production.
Demand charges for electricity work the same way. The size of the wires in the power grid and within the plant are related to the peak draw on the system. Significant savings occurs when the high power draw actions do not occur simultaneously. This is especially true in situations where the usage is approaching the maximum that the existing infrastructure can deliver. I happen to like coloring Excel spread sheets so that a quick glance confirms that all high power users are not active at the same time.

Colored charts add understanding to simple
tables of numbers

Attention to detail made it possible to divert 100 of 450 amps to added hot oil heating units.
The same focus on only the black faces applies to my mileage trakker business. In start up mode our effort was aimed at tabulating the trips in IRS format so that our trakkers could qualify for the deduction which puts about $2000 in their pockets. It took a request by one of our users to help us see the white in addition to the black. Some business owners need to tabulate how long they are at the customer on a service call. Surprise – Surprise! This matches how long their car is in the customer parking lot. We are now beta testing a feature that logs the time at the customer.

Feedback

Posted on September 27, 2015 by george

It is easier to hit the target when you employ feedback

When I first embarked on a campaign to knock seconds out of my CNC cycle times, a few eyebrows were raised. The doubters lacked the experience to realize that just about every quality deficiency or design change would add task steps and cutting time to the CNC cycle. Multi million dollar CNC machining centers usually do not have spare capacity. The direct feed back made this a good starting Kaizen project to tackle with my machining team. Our successful effort was just in time to support the next generation of models which included additional machined features. Next on the Kaizen plate was an attack on cutting tool usage. Even though we utilized the excellent feedback loop of a run chart, the actual life of the cutting edge was poor. Fortunately introduction of TiALN coating of the carbide inserts eliminated the size drift of the bored hole.

Surface technology advances dramatically increase cutter life

We were happy about the resultant $250,000 annual reduction in cutting tool purchases and the saving in down time related to cutting edge replacement, but we lost our run chart feedback loop. The cutter held bore size until it chipped. We needed a new feed back loop. In the short term we switched to 100% guaging of every part. When an edge chipped we replaced, reset and rebored before removal of the part from the fixture. This proved cumbersome. Our team wanted to automate measurement using the CNC and the probe. Combo cutters were designed and purchased to knock more seconds out of the cycles. We had switched to through spindle oil mist lubricant to save part washing and smell. More feedback required. An artifact was added to the fixture with a reference bore size so that the probe could be calibrated to measure the part at the current ambient temperature. We had lost the temperature stability that comes with flood coolant. We discovered that it was not enough to detect the wear of the finishing cutter. A chipped roughing cutter also spoiled the bore roundness. This is especially true when it is also necessary to cut through weld. Using good visual management feedback practice the roughing cutter was helix orbitted to replace the lead in chamfer with a counterbore.

Counterbores made using the rougher enable visual management of cutter chipping

Finally we closed the loop. The probed rough and finish diameter measurement presented the correct tool for cutting edge swap immediately upon encountering a worn insert. Modern machined accuracy is always the result of properly planned feedback

User Invisible

Posted on September 25, 2015 by george

We all appreciate the tasks that are completed for us invisibly

The best companies know their customer so well that they are able to provide their offering almost invisibly. This is refreshing in an era where we are bombarded at every turn by another ad message seeking our attention. There are a couple of so called recruiting firms that spam my e-mail daily, to the point where I will have nothing to do with them — ever. If they show that level of insensitivity to the candidates whom they believe should buy their service, I can imagine how they appear to the companies who are hiring.
Texting is a good example of user invisible. The using public is very comfortable with text messaging because it has been around for a long time. In 1933 RCA Communications, introduced the first “telex” service between New York and Europe. My dad’s best friend, a NASA electrical engineer HAM radio enthusiast, carried on a radio telex conversation with a friend in South Africa long into the night when the fickle strength of the nighttime ionosphere permitted it. The rest of us had to wait for texting to become a feature of our cell phones. In 1995 Telecom Finland and Radiolinja in Finland offered cross-network SMS (Short Message Service) functionality which began the modern back bone for cell phone texting. Today, in countries such as Finland, Sweden and Norway, over 85% of the population use SMS. The European average is about 80%, and North America is rapidly catching up with over 60% active users of SMS as of the end of 2008.
The brevity of the text message is appreciated by the users and the carriers alike. The 160 character size (invented in 1985 by Friedhelm Hillebrand while he was working for Deutsche Telekom) of a text message enables transmission of 350 text messages in the bandwidth required to send a single phone call. The users experience this simplicity as an affordable price. Text messaging services can feel particularly intimate because they talk like humans. Digital users who type “thank you” after the software executes a command instantly get a “you’re welcome.” The barriers to using a new service are also lower, because there’s nothing to download. In a February blog post, Jonathan Libov, an analyst at venture capital firm Union Square Ventures, recounts standing at a New York City bus stop and having another passenger tell him about Bus Time, which lets people text the Metropolitan Transit Authority to find out how long they’ll have to wait for the next bus. His first thought: “Thank God I don’t need to download another f—ing app for this.”
When we were inventing http://mileagetrakker.com we chose a hybrid approach. Our beta testing proved that the users wanted to choose an interface that matched their lifestyle. The nice part of a connected car service is that we know when the vehicle is actually driving. Our cloud based interface does not get the users into trouble by having them text and drive. Selected users find it easiest to record the business purpose of the trip as they walk away from their vehicles.

Capture your full mileage deduction

Product Hunt introduces 10-20 new smart phone applications every day. This is a lot more than will ever fit into my smart phone. Gartner analyst Ken Dulaney said in a statement: “Our analysis shows that most mobile applications are not generating profits and that many mobile apps are not designed to generate revenue, but rather are used to build brand recognition and product awareness or are just for fun. Product Hunt now lists over forty offerings that use text instead of an application as a user interface. Text is a trend that is growing.

Iteration

Posted on September 18, 2015 by george

Advancing technology is a series of iterative steps

It no longer becomes possible to define completely the details of a project when you are pushing the technology envelope. With the Mercury space project, the leap was aggressive with massive public attention. The planners who arranged that successful effort, formalized the iterative approach to new product development. They found it necessary to move beyond trying to define the desired result at the beginning and progressing in “waterfall” fashion to completion. Using the iterative method that they formalized, the Mercury project was organized into a series of experimental steps. The results of each step’s planned test provided the information needed to progress further. Obviously some of the tests ended in failure as we have seen in the news. The latest SpaceX, Blue Orion, Challenger disasters that literally explode into the public consciousness come to mind. Neil Armstong was asked to indicate what he thought was the dangerous part of space flight. He indicated it was the time between entering and leaving the space capsule
The Chrysler Minivan actually has the same cargo capacity as was offered in the smallest full size van at the time. Achieving this feat is a good example of iteration in action. One of my car designers described the task as stuffing 10 lbs into a 5 lb box. We did not wish to give up the ability to stow a full size spare. Since changing a flat is such a pain in the butt, it is unlikely that a traveler with a flat in the wilds of Laos will appreciate our efforts until he is writing his memoirs.

Having a full size spare tire saves spending the
night out in the wilds of Laos

The basic challenge is that a full size tire did not fit between the rear axle and the rear bumper. Tough development tasks require superb executive planning. The advanced design team got the first kick at the can. They picked adding a kink into the axle. Fortunately planning a hand off to a second design team solves the issue of becoming attached to a mediocre solution simply because of pride in authorship. Offsetting the axle both down and forward proved to be the elegant solution. Having an overlap between the production design team and advance design team efforts mitigated the time lost by changing concept midstream. (We also got lucky because the kinked axel was the item that failed when the advance design was tested)
Iterative product development (in manufacturing we call this Kaizen) has emerged as the dominant strategy for launching software products. Following the tenants of lean startup, we launched http://mileagetrakker.com. A/B testing was used to tune our product so that the UX (user experience) is positive. Subsequent improvements are evaluated using the SCRUM approach where potential improvements are exposed to subsets of the user base. The first improvements that we implemented made more of an impact because diminishing returns sets in.

Iterative development illustration by Dutchguilder

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